The forecast continued to fluctuate Wednesday, with little in the way of rain for the region by 3 p.m., but the National Weather Service was steadfast that the outlook remained rainy for the rest of the week.
The forecast for Wednesday called for half an inch to three-quarters of an inch of rain between about 5 a.m. and midnight in Oakland, San Francisco, San Mateo County, Santa Cruz County and the East Bay Hills, as well as an inch in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
By 3 p.m., it was apparent that the rainfall total by the end of the day was likely to be considerably less.
“It’s slower than we thought,” NWS meteorologist Dylan Flynn said around midday Wednesday, referring to a storm cell that was the second in three systems expected to pass through the region before Sunday. “It’s going to turn into a nighttime event.”
Once the rain begins to fall, he said — Flynn estimated that the storm would arrive around 6 p.m. Wednesday — “we’ll have to see” just how much there is. He said the Friday system continues to appear as the heaviest storm of the three, and that the rain for the rest of the week is expected to last through Saturday.
A NWS bulletin called the upcoming rain showers “unorganized,” as the rain bands were predicted to lose their structures once they pushed inland past the coast.
“The only thing we can say with any confidence at this point is that it will dry out on Sunday,” Flynn said.
Strong winds will pair with the rain overnight, with gusts reaching more than 20 miles per hour and perhaps as high as 32 mph in some places. They’re expected to be particularly strong in the South Bay, with San Jose gusts possibly hitting 26 mph, but could reach 22 in Livermore and parts of the East Bay, 18 in Concord, and 25 in San Francisco.
In addition to the rain, Wednesday afternoon will bring stronger southerly winds. Here's a look at the maximum gusts (mph) expected through the day. pic.twitter.com/D6UiCsRTRW
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) November 15, 2023
Early Wednesday, strong winds blew through the Salinas Valley and created dust storms and reduced visibility on the roadways, according to the weather service.
“Just a few miles where we are in Monterey, there’s barely a breeze,” Flynn said. “The winds are very isolated.”
This is a developing report. Check back for updates.
