The game of the year in the Pac-12 has come and gone. What’s next for Washington and Oregon?
This is what’s next: Both teams are heavy favorites at home this week, with UW hosting Arizona State and Oregon welcoming Washington State.
Will they execute as expected? Or are the Huskies and Ducks destined to spend the weekend in Letdown City after their taxing affair a few days ago?
For context, the Hotline tracked how the bitter rivals have fared historically in the game immediately after their annual showdown.
We checked two decades of point spreads and final scores and learned the following:
— Oregon is 15-4 straight up the game after playing UW.
— Washington is 4-15 immediately after facing Oregon.
The discrepancy in success makes some sense. For many of those 19 seasons — the teams didn’t play each other in 2020 — the Ducks had a powerhouse team and the Huskies were, at best, mediocre.
For that reason, we also examined how the teams performed against the point spread, because oddsmakers take into account the quality of each team when setting the weekly lines.
In that regard, as well, Oregon has outperformed UW.
— The Ducks are 10-8-1 against the spread in the game after playing Washington.
— The Huskies are 6-13 against the number after facing Oregon.
UW’s recent post-Oregon history includes a 2021 date with the team it plays this week, Arizona State. In 2021, the Huskies were six-point home underdogs against ASU and managed to cover the spread in a 35-30 loss.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have played this weekend’s opponent, Washington State, three times in the past five years immediately after facing Washington. Oregon pushed in 2021 and failed to cover the spread against WSU in both 2018-19.
Overall, Oregon is 5-0-1 against the spread this season, while Washington is 3-2-1.
To the picks …
Last week: 3-2-1
Season: 23-22-1
Five-star special: 5-2
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)
(All times Pacific)
Idle: Arizona, Cal, Colorado and Oregon State
Washington State at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: Oregon -20 (total: 62.5)
Comment: The Ducks have won four in a row in the series, including a three-point thriller last year in Pullman. This looked like a high-level matchup until WSU dropped its past two games, to UCLA and Arizona, and looked bad in both. The offense has stalled out, with quarterback Cam Ward in a deep funk. Unless the Cougars find their September mojo, they stand little chance against Oregon’s balanced attack and talent at the line of scrimmage. Ward will be on the run all afternoon, with the Cougars playing from behind … far behind.
Pick: Oregon
Utah at USC
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on FOX
Line: USC -7 (total: 56)
Comment: The latest installment of what has become a terrific series is also the last scheduled meeting between the former South division rivals. The Utes mastered USC twice last season, but the dynamics have changed on Utah’s end with the prolonged absence of injured quarterback Cam Rising. The Trojans are essentially the same team as last year, with a prolific offense and turnstile defense. Are the Utes equipped to take advantage, control the clock and wear down USC’s front seven? We’re skeptical that they can score frequently enough to keep pace — and that their defense can hold off USC quarterback Caleb Williams in the second half.
Pick: USC
UCLA at Stanford
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: UCLA -17 (total: 53.5)
Comment: The Bruins have not played well on the road, with losses at Utah and Oregon State that featured erratic performances by freshman quarterback Dante Moore (43 percent completion, four interceptions). Granted, Stanford’s defense isn’t as stout as those found in Salt Lake City and Corvallis. But the Cardinal has a handful of disruptors and, more importantly, discovered a quarterback and momentum during the historic 29-point comeback at Colorado last week. UCLA should prevail, but that feels like a few points too many.
Pick: Stanford
Arizona State at Washington
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on FS1
Line: Washington -26.5 (total: 58.5)
Comment: Easy to envision a slow start by the Huskies and some trick plays from Arizona State, which had two weeks to prepare. Eventually, UW should find its rhythm and take charge, but that shift could be too late to cover what’s effectively a four-touchdown betting line. Of note: ASU has won 13 of the past 15 matchups, with a few wins coming as a significant underdog — like last season, when the Sun Devils won outright as a 13-point underdog.
Pick: Arizona State
Straight-up winners: Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington
Five-star special: Stanford. In what should be a relatively low-scoring affair, 17 points feels like 20. And that’s too much for our liking.
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