Arizona is tied for sixth place in the Pac-12 standings but alone in first against the point spread.
In fact, the Wildcats are No. 1 in the country against the line, having covered in six of their seven games. (The exception: a one-point victory at Stanford). Only Oklahoma, Penn State and UNLV share that 6-1 record.
But in a separate category, no team is close: The Wildcats are beating the point spread by an average of 10.9 points.
That massive average is largely built on a single performance. The Wildcats were 7.5-point underdogs at Washington State and won by 38 points.
Also, they were 21-point underdogs at USC and lost by two.
And they were 19.5-point underdogs against Washington and lost by seven.
All three teams (USC, WSU and Washington) were ranked at the time of kickoff.
Which means the Wildcats are 3-0 against the spread when facing ranked opponents — and covered the spread by an average of 25.7 points.
This week, they face a ranked opponent, Oregon State.
This week, they are 3.5-point underdogs.
And they’re at home.
To the picks …
Last week: 2-2
Season: 25-24-1
Five-star special: 5-3
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)
(All times Pacific)
Oregon at Utah
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: Oregon -7 (total: 48.5)
Comment: Utah is a 7-point underdog for the second consecutive week after the mammoth road win over USC, but the injuries continue to pile up. (The latest player lost for the season: star linebacker Lander Barton.) Oregon is far more complete than USC along the lines of scrimmage and one of the few teams capable of holding up against the ultra-physical Utes. The Ducks also will create more challenges for Utah’s inexperienced quarterback, Bryson Barnes. The Utes haven’t been a home underdog since early in the 2018 season, when they lost to Washington. We like Oregon to win but will happily take the points.
Pick: Utah
USC at Cal
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: USC -11 (total: 66.5)
Comment: Meet the anti-Arizona: The Trojans are one of the worst teams in the country against the spread, having covered just twice in eight games. They were huge favorites against Colorado and Arizona but won narrowly, then lost outright to Notre Dame and Utah. The Bears are mediocre on defense and erratic on offense but usually play well against USC. They covered the spread in four of the past five matchups, lost by a mere touchdown last year and are coming off a bye.
Pick: Cal
Washington at Stanford
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Line: Washington -26.5 (total: 59.5)
Comment: Both teams are looking for traction in the final game of a series that began in 1893. The undefeated Huskies need to regain momentum after the close call against Arizona State, while the Cardinal has been run off the field in five of the past six halves. (The exception: The second half in Boulder.) We are not convinced UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is healthy enough to launch his left-handed missiles anywhere on the field or that the defense is stout enough to keep Stanford in the single digits. That’s a huge spread given the point total; something will give.
Pick: Stanford
Colorado at UCLA
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: UCLA -17.5 (total: 63.5)
Comment: The visitors had two weeks to recover from the epic meltdown against Stanford and prepare for the Bruins, while the hosts are coming off an impressive showing at Stanford. Only Old Dominion has allowed more sacks than Colorado (35), and UCLA’s defensive front is big, fast and relentless. Look for CU quarterback Shedeur Sanders to spend most of the game on the run. If he avoids forcing the ball into coverage, the Buffs could hang around long enough to cover.
Pick: UCLA
Washington State at Arizona State
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: WSU -6.5 (total: 51.5)
Comment: The Sun Devils have covered the spread against Washington and USC, but those were massive numbers offset large by ASU’s effort level. This line is within the range of a competitive game that could turn on a single play. The Cougars are struggling on offense and under mounting pressure to end a losing streak that could derail their bowl aspirations. Look for a low-scoring affair, mostly on account of the hosts: The Devils are just 117th nationally in yards-per-play gained but 30th in yards-per-play allowed. In other words, first team to 21 wins.
Pick: Arizona State
Oregon State at Arizona
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: Oregon State -3.5 (total: 56.5)
Comment: It’s strength on strength in the Week 9 nightcap with Oregon State’s relentless running game facing an Arizona run defense that ranks No. 14 nationally in yards allowed. That suggests the outcome depends on matchups elsewhere, specifically: Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita’s efficiency against an OSU pass defense that has performed well all season. And in the interest of providing balance to the narrative laid out in the introductory section, we should note that the Beavers have covered the spread in eight of the past 12 series meetings.
Pick: Arizona
Straight-up winners: Oregon, Cal, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Oregon State
Five-star special: Cal. The Bears aren’t very good, but they had two weeks to prepare and the Trojans are, well, a mess.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
