The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Is it possible the 10 departing schools are just stalling to ensure they receive their full payments for 2023-24, then quietly leave after realizing they don’t really have a case for future payments? — @Xman689
It seems the ‘Pac-10’ realized they left money behind and now want to come back to get it. In mediation, what would they reasonably be asking for and what, if anything, would the two be willing to give? — @pfnnewmedia
Both questions target a central issue in the intra-conference dispute: What do the 10 outgoing schools want? What do they hope to accomplish, either through mediation or the legal proceedings in Washington? What’s the endgame?
First, let’s outline the Hotline’s overarching view.
We do not believe the ‘Pac-10’ have adopted a punitive approach toward Oregon State and Washington State. We disagree with the notion that they are seeking to strip the conference bare and leave the ‘Pac-2’ with no choice but to join the Mountain West.
Yes, of course: Their actions left OSU and WSU adrift, but realignment is unforgiving and schools do what’s necessary to survive. Saying goodbye isn’t necessarily wishing ill will.
Now that the collapse is official, they all want the Beavers and Cougars to succeed.
But they also want the divorce to be fair to both sides, and one aspect, in particular, was raised recently by a Hotline source: The outgoing schools don’t believe OSU and WSU should be allowed to keep all the assets and then shutter the conference.
How might that happen?
The grant-of-rights term ends on Aug. 1, 2024, so let’s use that date as our benchmark.
The scenario the ‘Pac-10’ want to avoid is the following:
- Either through the lawsuit or mediation, OSU and WSU are allowed to keep all Pac-12 assets, which include more than $60 million in NCAA Tournament units and potentially two years of massive Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff revenue.
- On Aug. 1, 2024, the 10 schools announce they are officially leaving the conference.
- On Aug. 2, 2024, tens of millions of dollars in assets are transferred from the conference coffers to the OSU and WSU bank accounts.
- On Aug. 3, 2024, the Beavers and Cougars announce they are joining the Mountain West.
The outbound schools believe that outcome would be grossly inappropriate. There are assuredly other sticking points in the negotiations, but we believe that scenario is No. 1 on the list.
Also important: The distribution plan for College Football Playoff revenue is not guaranteed. The CFP is waiting for the outcome of the Pac-12 legal dispute before making any possible adjustments to its format and financial models.
What scenario might satisfy both sides?
The ‘Pac-10’ cannot force the ‘Pac-2’ to rebuild the conference or settle on any single scenario. Perhaps an equal division of whatever CFP revenue is available — again, that piece is unknown — for the 2024-25 seasons? We are merely guessing.
The entire situation is unfortunate and features stress on both sides. The ‘Pac-2’ need resolution sooner than later so they can make plans for next season. Meanwhile, the ‘Pac-10’ are loath to divulge internal documents in discovery because of potentially sensitive communications with their new conferences.
How does it end?
It’s difficult to imagine the ‘Pac-10’ allowing a judge based in Whitman County, Washington, which includes Pullman, deciding the fate of the conference.
If mediation doesn’t work, several outbound schools could respond by seeking temporary restraining orders in their home states.
And if that’s the next step, a big mess becomes much, much bigger.
Since it seems the ‘Pac-2’ are going to be considered Independents like Notre Dame next year, how does that work for the College Football Playoff? Do they need to finish in the top-12 in the rankings? — @brycetacoma
We would caution fans against presuming that Washington State and Oregon State are going to compete as a two-team conference next year. That’s one possible outcome, but there are hurdles ahead.
But if the ‘Pac-2’ becomes reality, the College Football Playoff power brokers could remove its Power Five status and treat the Beavers and Cougars as either Independents or a Group of Five conference, with the former more likely.
As Independents in the expanded playoff, they would have access through the at-large pool based on their ranking in the final standings.
We expect the reconfigured format to assign automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions and the seven highest-ranked non-champions.
The Group of Five designation would be more favorable because of the automatic bids, but WSU and OSU probably won’t have that status as a two-team league.
Are the Pac-12 Networks even meeting their contractual requirements? They constantly show reruns. Last Saturday, they didn’t even have a Pac-12 football game. And the ‘After Dark’ show is terrible, with three dudes kicked back on a sofa. — @Raimond80780510
Yes, the networks are broadcasting 850 live events this season to meet the requirements of their distribution contracts and assure the money will keep flowing through the 2023-24 competition year.
The lack of football broadcasts on the Pac-12 Networks on Oct. 21 was a function of the schedule: All four games were shown by the ESPN and Fox networks.
Unfortunately, the Pac-12 studio shows aren’t what they once were.
Do you think Apple will pay to put the Pac-12 back together, and how much would they pay each school? — @crashlit
It’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
If Apple wants to enter the college football space in a low-risk scenario — but with an eye on a much larger role years down the road — then an agreement with the ‘Pac-2’ might be enticing.
Or the company could bid on the media rights to whatever conference emerges from the ‘Pac-2’ and Mountain West.
The latter’s current contract with CBS and Fox expires in the spring of 2026. Whether the schools are competing under the banner of the MW or the Pac-12 at that point, there will be market interest in a medium-term rights agreement
The revenue would be limited, perhaps to a few million dollars per year per school. But if Washington State and Oregon State gain access to Pac-12 assets, they would have some flexibility on the revenue front, at least in the short term.
In the history of the Hotline power rankings, has Oregon State ever been No. 1 or No. 2? — Dan N
Great question, and I don’t have an answer off the top of my head.
The Beavers could climb into one of the top spots with a few more victories, or with losses by the two teams (Washington and Oregon) slotted above them.
Jonathan Smith’s work is nothing short of remarkable, and his team now has a three-game season to create a two-game season to create a one-game season.
If the Beavers handle Arizona, Colorado and Stanford, they will have one loss entering the double-whammy finish against UW and Oregon that would determine the participants in the conference championship.
Should Cal and Stanford fans expect more afternoon home games in the ACC? Or will the curse of regular “after-dark” kickoffs remain? I’m curious if the Big Ten’s West Coast additions will also play in daylight more often at home, starting in 2024. — @OrangeMarkD
Joining leagues based in the Eastern and Central Time Zones absolutely does not mean the 10 outgoing schools are done with night kickoffs.
ESPN and Fox still need programming for the late broadcast windows, and the Pacific and Mountain Time Zone schools are the only ones that can provide it.
Yes, a higher percentage of road games will be played in the afternoon (Pacific time). But expect plenty of home games — or road games played out west — to start under the cover of darkness.
And in the case of Washington and Oregon, look for more Friday night home games.
Fox didn’t agree to pay $65 million annually (approximately) to show the Huskies and Ducks during the crammed Saturday schedule.
We suspect each school will have two or three Friday home games each season.
Could ESPN have blocked Stanford, Cal and SMU to the ACC if they really wanted too? — @JustR_02
ESPN’s contract with the ACC included a pro-rata clause, meaning the network was obligated to pay the same rate for new members as existing schools. In other words, each slice of the revenue pie would remain the same.
We should assume there was some haggling over that clause, but clearly the ACC got its way.
The most surprising aspect of the deal is that ESPN was on the hook for pro rata shares not only for Power Five members but also Group of Five teams (i.e., SMU).
One key point: The pro-rata share is based on ESPN’s Tier 1 contract with ACC. It does not include the ACC Network distributions.
Considering the Big 12 doesn’t have a network, how are all the football and men’s and women’s basketball games on TV, or are they? — @scottsdaleazwsu
The Big 12 doesn’t have a wholly-owned linear and digital network. But it has a media partner, ESPN+, and that partner owns a streaming network.
Big 12 football and basketball games not shown on linear television can be found on Big 12 Now, through ESPN+.
If Gonzaga does leave the West Coast Conference, where does that leave Saint Mary’s? — @skiswm
We are deeply skeptical of Gonzaga joining the Big 12.
Commissioner Brett Yormark is driving the discussion but must convince the schools there is value in the move — and that won’t be easy. Even elite basketball programs generate just 20 or 25 cents on the dollar in media contracts.
But in a world where Yormark makes it work with the Zags, Saint Mary’s isn’t going anywhere. The Gaels simply cannot match Gonzaga’s national appeal.
If the Zags joined the Big 12 or even a rebuilt Pac-12 — we probably shouldn’t rule that out just yet — Saint Mary’s would remain in the WCC.
And then yet another conference would need to seek new members.
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