A new threat has emerged in the Pac-12’s pursuit of its second consecutive Heisman Trophy, and he’s a former friend.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels produced a record-setting game and joined the group of betting favorites three weeks before ballots are due.

Daniels grew up in Southern California and was a three-year starter for Arizona State before moving to Baton Rouge ahead of the 2022 season.

He spent most of the past two months as a second-level Heisman candidate but improved his prospects substantially last weekend in a victory over Florida, becoming the first quarterback in FBS history to have at least 350 yards passing and 200 yards rushing.

The performance forced oddsmakers to adjust their lines.

As of Monday, BetMGM listed Oregon quarterback Bo Nix as the 10-to-11 favorite (i.e., less than 1-to-1).

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the betting favorite in prior weeks, is just under 4-to-1.

Then comes Daniels at a solid 4-to-1, followed by Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at 11-to-2.

That, folks, is the top tier.

Unlike the other frontrunners, however, Daniels has no chance to impress voters on championship weekend. LSU has been eliminated from the SEC title race.

1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.

Last week: 1
Key stats: 353.3 yards per game, 9.7 yards per attempt, 28 touchdowns
Comment: Penix did nothing wrong in the victory over Utah and remains well-positioned for a trip to New York City for the Heisman ceremony. His prospects for claiming the trophy depend almost entirely on UW reaching the Pac-12 title game — and on Penix delivering a first-class performance in the spotlight.

2. Oregon QB Bo Nix

Last week: 2
Key stats: 184.7 passer rating, 77.7% completion, 9.4 yards per attempt
Comment: Nix continues to produce off-the-charts efficiency and will have a series of games on broadcast TV down the stretch to strut his stuff in front of voters who haven’t been paying attention. But like Penix, his fate hinges on advancing to, and thriving in the conference championship

3. USC QB Caleb Williams

Last week: 3
Key stats: 172.2 passer rating, 67.9 percent completion, 9.4 yards per attempt
Comment: Williams’ second-tier status in the race illustrates the challenges faced by Heisman winners in their quest to repeat. His completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating are better than last year. But USC has more losses and, fair or not, voters are judging Williams by a different standard.

4. Arizona QB Noah Fifita

Last week: 4
Key stats: 158.7 passer rating, 73.7% completion, 16 touchdowns
Comment: Redshirts are eligible for the Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year Award, so let’s hand the 2023 edition to Fifita now — he played in three games last season — and move along to other matters.

5. Oregon WR Troy Franklin

Last week: 6
Key stats: 60 catches, 18.2 yards per catch, 11 touchdowns
Comment: Time to start the discussion: Is Franklin the best receiver in Oregon history? If the junior returns next season — hardly a guarantee, in our view — and plays at this level, he will have a great case.

6. Washington WR Rome Odunze

Last week: Not ranked
Key stats: 59 receptions, 18.6 yards per catch, nine touchdowns
Comment: The top category in John Wooden’s famed Pyramid of Success is competitive greatness: Be at your best when your best is required. Against USC, Utah and Oregon, Odunze had 16 catches for 321 yards and four touchdowns.

Also considered (alphabetically): Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger, OSU LB Andrew Chatfield, Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, Oregon DL Brandon Dorlus, Utah DE Jonah Elliss, OSU OL Taliese Fuaga and Joshua Gray, Stanford K Joshua Karty, UCLA Edge Laiatu Latu, Arizona LB Jacob Manu, OSU TB Damien Martinez, Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Cal TB Jaydn Ott and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Just before lunch, Utah visits Arizona with the home team (surprise, surprise) taking aim at a spot in the conference championship.

The Wildcats cannot clinch a spot in Las Vegas with a victory, but their sixth consecutive loss to Utah would make the quest vastly more difficult.

After lunch and up the road, Oregon duels with Arizona State in a stadium that has derailed Duck dreams in the past.

Four years ago, a late-November loss to the Sun Devils ended Oregon’s playoff drive. Another loss would do the same — and knock the Ducks out of their pole position in the race for the No. 2 seed in the Pac-12 championship.

Washington (7-0 in conference play) is the frontrunner and would clinch a berth with a victory in either of its last two games.

Oregon (6-1) also controls its destiny: Win out, and the Ducks are in.

Arizona (5-2) must sweep its final two games and needs the Ducks to lose. (Yes, the Wildcats are rooting for ASU this weekend.)

And let’s not forget about Oregon State (5-2), which must win out and requires help because of its head-to-head loss to the Wildcats. (The Beavers are backing Utah this weekend.)

Loads of scenarios exist — far too many for the Hotline’s crack research team and state-of-the-art supercomputer to calculate.

But clarity will begin to emerge Saturday afternoon along the Pac-12’s southern border.

To the picks …

Last week: 2-4
Season: 35-32-1
Five-star special: 6-5

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from BetMGM (via VegasInsider.com)

(All times Pacific)

Colorado at Washington State (Friday)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on FS1
Line: WSU -4.5 (total: 64.5)
Comment: Welcome to the Look Out, Below! Bowl. The Buffaloes have lost four in a row; the Cougars have dropped their past six (but collected a huge victory off the field on Tuesday). The loser is officially eliminated from the bowl season, so desperation will be palpable. We are typically wary of the road team on Friday night because of the difficult logistics and condensed preparation time. But CU quarterback Shedeur Sanders is playing better than his WSU counterpart, Cam Ward, and that should make the difference.
Pick: Colorado

Utah at Arizona
Kickoff: 11:30 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Arizona -1 (total: 44.5)
Comment: We couldn’t help but notice the trajectory of the point spreads in this series and how they track with Arizona’s nadir and subsequent ascent. The Utes were favored by 22 points in 2019 and by 24 points in 2021. (The teams didn’t meet during the pandemic year.) But the line dipped to 17 last season and now, amazingly, has flipped completely. The Wildcats are narrow favorites, which reflects both their four-game winning streak and Utah’s lengthy injury list. From here, Arizona looks well-equipped to deal with Utah at the line of scrimmage — a dramatic change compared to prior meetings.
Pick: Arizona

UCLA at USC
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: USC -6.5 (total: 65.5)
Comment: The last meeting of the crosstown rivals as members of the Pac-12 once looked like a critical matchup in the conference race. But with both teams immersed in late-season fades, the stakes are local, not national. How far will the Trojans tumble in Year Two under Lincoln Riley? Will the Bruins muster a performance that takes Chip Kelly off the Hot Seat? This might be USC quarterback Caleb Williams’ final college appearance (if he turns pro and sits out the bowl game). He’s a generational talent. Enjoy him while you can.
Pick: UCLA

Oregon at Arizona State
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
Line: Oregon -23.5 (total: 53.5)
Comment: The Hotline called ASU’s stunner in 2019, but we do not foresee a repeat this week. The Sun Devils aren’t as talented as they were back then, and these Ducks are as good, if not better than the Justin Herbert-led outfit. That said, this should be closer than the point spread indicates. Nobody knows Oregon’s personnel and scheme like ASU coach Kenny Dillingham, who served as the Ducks’ offensive coordinator last year. That edge won’t be decisive, but it will help the Devils stay in range.
Pick: Arizona State

Cal at Stanford
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Cal -6.5 (total: 55.5)
Comment: A few miles from the Pacific Ocean, these future ACC rivals collide with high stakes for one team and a spoiler opportunity for the other. Cal must win to keep its bowl hopes alive; Stanford was officially eliminated last week. The Cardinal’s first-year coach, Troy Taylor, faces his former team with a wobbly defense and erratic offense (20.9 points per game). The Bears are more proficient at scoring (30.9 ppg) under playcaller Jake Spavital, but in a rivalry game that matches rookie quarterbacks, mistakes (or lack thereof) will determine the outcome.
Pick: Stanford

Washington at Oregon State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: Oregon State -2.5 (total: 63.5)
Comment: The game of the day in the Pac-12 is one of the biggest games in OSU history, and it speaks volumes about coach Jonathan Smith’s work in Corvallis that his team is favored against an opponent that hasn’t lost in more than a year. The tactics are straightforward: The Beavers will rely on their running game to control the clock and wear down UW’s defense, while Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ passing attack soften up the OSU defense, opening up running lanes.
Pick: Washington

Straight-up winners: Colorado, Arizona, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Washington

Five-star special: Colorado. Nothing we’ve seen from WSU in the past six weeks suggests the Cougars can make enough big plays, while avoiding crushing mistakes, to end their losing streak.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

But overtime looms.

The defendants, with Washington running point for the other nine outgoing schools, plan to appeal Whitman County (Wash.) Superior Court Judge Gary Libey’s decision to grant a preliminary injunction that left WSU and OSU as the sole voting members of the Pac-12’s governing board.

As such, the two schools left behind in the realignment game can determine the fate of hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue and assets.

However, Libey agreed to stay his ruling through the remainder of the week to allow Washington to pursue an appeal.

It’s not over.

It could drag on for weeks, if not months.

Six thoughts on the latest developments:

1. The defendants announced immediately after the ruling that they would appeal to the Washington Supreme Court in Olympia, where UW hopes to receive a more favorable audience.

Libey’s courtroom is 15 miles from Pullman.

Olympia is an hour from Husky Stadium.

However, there’s no guarantee the request for an appeal will be granted — or that the state’s highest court will accept the case. It could be passed to an appellate court in Spokane, according to a person familiar with the Evergreen State’s legal system.

The Hotline won’t begin to guess how the appeal process might unfold. But we know this: Just as it’s better to have the call on the field in your favor before it goes to the replay booth, so would you rather be the plaintiffs than the defendants at this point.

2. The Hotline watched every second of the two-and-a-half-hour hearing (on the livestream) with an eye on the performance of the attorneys — and there were a lot of attorneys:

— Each of the two plaintiffs had its own representation, with Eric MacMichael, from Keker, Van Nest and Peters, taking the lead.

— The Pac-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff, the named defendants in the case, were represented primarily by Mark Lambert.

— Washington’s lead attorney, Dan Levin, also represented the nine departing, out-of-state schools.

How did they fare?

MacMichael steamrollered his opponents with a clear, concise argument. And admittedly, he had the best material. The plaintiffs based their case on actual events — specifically, the Pac-12’s decision to remove USC and UCLA from the governing board starting in July 2022, after their departures to the Big Ten were announced.

(OSU and WSU have argued all along that the precedent set 16 months ago applies whether two schools are leaving or 10.)

Meanwhile, UW’s case relied on nuanced, nearly inscrutable reading of the bylaws that attempted to show the schools hadn’t abdicated their board seats.

One side leaned into real-world events; the other spent the afternoon talking about the meaning of the phrase “notice of withdrawal.”

In his folksy tone, Libey captured the arguments perfectly when he said: “I grew up where conduct spoke louder than words.”

Meanwhile, the Pac-12’s attorney flopped and flailed with poor material. At one point, he argued that WSU and OSU would be better off with the status quo, with no board control — we burst out laughing at the suggestion.

His performance perfectly reflected a conference office that’s caught in the middle of this internecine fight and a commissioner who, having overseen the collapse of a century-old college sports institution, has no authority or credibility.

3. Not all 10 outbound schools have taken the same approach to the lawsuit. According to a source, there are hardliners within the group that prevented the two sides from reaching a settlement through mediation.

As the proceedings began Tuesday afternoon, Libey expressed disappointment that the factions could not agree on a division of the 2023-24 revenue and assets that satisfied both sides.

Perhaps his ruling will prompt the hardliners to accept, for example, $25 million or $30 million per campus in revenue distributions. (Full revenue shares would be $35 million, according to financial data cited in court documents.)

That would ensure the plaintiffs have cash to fortify their futures and give the defendants support for operations during their final year in the conference.

A settlement makes the most sense, by far. As one source noted: “This is basically a divorce hearing. It will come down to what the alimony payment is.”

And it’s worth noting: The conference isn’t currently in possession of the full $420 million in 2023-24 revenue. The cash is paid by media partners on a schedule throughout the year.

4. For all the focus on the revenue due the conference in 2023-24 and another $100 million (or more) in assets that await WSU and OSU starting next summer, the schools are equally concerned about the size and nature of the liabilities.

Between Kliavkoff’s contract, the rent on the Pac-12 production studio in San Ramon and potential damages in a series of lawsuits — the Pac-12 is the sole defendant in some and one of several defendants in others — the conference could be on the hook for tens of millions.

When will the bills come due?

What’s the grand total?

How will the costs be divided?

Libey’s ruling should expedite the process of sorting through the details and responsibilities.

5. Perhaps the most significant result of Libey’s ruling (assuming, for a moment, that it holds through the appeal process) is what it means for next year:

It pushes the ‘Pac-2’ much closer to reality.

The Cougars and Beavers are contemplating whether to operate as a two-team conference for the 2024-25 sports season — and possibly the 2025-26 season, as well. It’s permitted under NCAA rules, but the practicality is complicated. And costly.

Atop the list of challenges: Formulating schedules for their sports teams.

In that regard, the Mountain West schools could provide a life raft if the price is right.

We don’t know the specifics of the negotiations between the ‘Pac-2’ and the Mountain West. But control of the Pac-12 board would give the Cougars and Beavers access to the resources needed to align for what a source termed “bridge” seasons.

Starting in the fall of 2026, WSU and OSU must be members of a conference with at least eight schools. That conference could be a rebuilt Pac-12, the Mountain West or a league not yet formed.

6. Our last point addresses one of the first questions to surface following Libey’s ruling:

Will WSU and OSU hoard the entirety of the $420 million in revenue due to the Pac-12 in 2023-24? Or will they adopt a magnanimous approach and share the cash with the outbound schools?

We aren’t sure they have a choice.

“The bylaws dictate reasonable treatment,” a source noted.

Defining “reasonable” will assuredly require more billable hours, but Libey made his opinion clear.

“The (preliminary injunction) is going to be modified to make sure the other 10 are still treated in a fair manner,” he said. “Nobody’s going to take advantage of somebody else.”

If WSU and OSU attempt to bulldoze their way to every last dime, the two sides will wind up right back where they started: in court.

“The notion that (WSU and OSU) would take all the money and divide it between the two — that would put everyone right back in gridlock,” the source said.

“And the hope is to get out of this gridlock.”

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

After a two-and-a-half-hour hearing, Whitman County (Wash.) Superior Court Judge Gary Libey granted the schools’ request for a preliminary injunction that confirms they are the only remaining voting members of the shattered conference.

The Pac-12 “will be governed by the two universities that have not submitted their notices of intent to withdraw,” Libey said.

However, Libey stayed his ruling until the end of the week as the defendant, Washington (acting on behalf of all 10 departing members), seeks an appeal from the Washington Supreme Court in Olympia.

But the ruling Tuesday evening begins to clear the way for WSU and OSU to control more than $400 million in revenue for the current fiscal year and whatever long-term assets the conference maintains following the departure of 10 schools next summer.

“We are pleased with the court’s common-sense decision today,” WSU president Kirk Schulz and athletic director Pat Chun said in a statement. “It has always been our view that the future of the Pac-12 should be determined by the remaining members, not by those schools that are leaving the conference.

“This position is consistent with the action the Pac-12 Board of Directors took when the first two schools (USC and UCLA) announced their departure from the conference more than a year ago.”

While ruling in favor of the Cougars and Beavers, Libey attempted to make sure the contentious situation is dealt with equitably, perhaps signaling that some of the 2023-24 revenue should be distributed to the outbound schools.

“This is not a shutout” in favor of WSU and OSU, Libey added. “The (preliminary injunction) is going to be modified to make sure the other 10 are still treated in a fair manner … Nobody’s going to take advantage of somebody else.”

Libey included a stipulation that the 10 outbound schools must be notified of board meetings and allowed to participate — but they are forbidden from voting.

The 10 departing schools released the following statement:

“We are disappointed with the decision and are immediately seeking review in the Washington Supreme Court and requesting to put on hold implementation of this decision. As members of the Pac-12, participating in ongoing and scheduled competitions, we are members of the board under the Pac-12 bylaws.

“We have the right to the revenue earned by our schools during the 2023-2024 academic year, which is necessary in order to operate our athletics programs and to provide mental and physical health services, academic support, and other support programs for our student-athletes.”

Exactly how the Cougars and Beavers plan to distribute the revenue and manage the assets, which could include more than $100 million in revenue from the NCAA Tournament and Rose Bowl, remains unclear. After all, the two schools left behind in the realignment game were not able to plan for their future while waiting for the ruling on their motion for the injunction.

One option is to compete as a two-team conference in 2024-25. The cash could be used to piece together schedules and dangle in front of expansion candidates from the Mountain West Conference.

“Our intentions are to make reasonable business decisions going forward while continuing to seek collaboration and consultation with the departing universities,” OSU president Jayathi Murthy and athletic director Scott Barnes said in a statement.

Libey’s ruling was hardly a surprise, for the preponderance of real-world evidence favored the plaintiffs.

Attorneys for WSU and OSU argued that the 10 outbound schools relinquished their board positions when they agreed to join other conferences and cited the “notice of withdrawal” section in the Pac-12 bylaws.

As evidence, they pointed to the Pac-12’s treatment of USC and UCLA starting last summer, after the schools announced their pending departures to the Big Ten: USC’s president and UCLA’s chancellor were promptly removed from the Pac-12’s governing board — and commissioner George Kliavkoff said as much in multiple subsequent court declarations.

Washington’s attorneys argued the departing schools had not given notice of withdrawal and should remain on the board. Their case was based on an interpretation of language in the bylaws about the “delivery of notice” provision.

Libey didn’t buy it.

“I grew up where conduct spoke louder than words,” he said, alluding to the L.A. schools losing their board seats.

Libey included in his ruling that the conference shall be able to operate in the normal course of business until the stay is lifted.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

He doesn’t.

Arizona State’s controversial athletic director announced his resignation Monday, effective immediately.

So ends a nine-year reign that featured the standard array of hits and misses typical of college sports administration, along with a blunder for the ages that will define his legacy in Tempe.

The architect of the Herm Edwards Experiment had a partner, of course: ASU president Michael Crow signed off on all the major decisions, including the bowl ban announced days before the start of the season.

But Crow’s the big boss and has done first-rate work for the university. Anderson was responsible for oversight of the football program and bears responsibility for hiring Edwards, his friend and former business partner, and for the NCAA recruiting transgressions that have engulfed the program for two-and-a-half years.

News of Anderson’s resignation sparked the type of unrestrained joy on social media typically reserved for the dismissal of losing coaches.

But Anderson’s actions, demeanor and decisions over the years alienated many constituents. It’s no coincidence that the school’s NIL arm, the Sun Angel Collective, set a single-day record Monday for new members, according to SunDevilSource.com.

The timing and wording of the announcement were curious. Why Monday instead of immediately following the regular season? Or instead of any day in the past two years?

The “effective immediately” piece certainly suggests it wasn’t Anderson’s call — that he’s going out on Crow’s terms, not his own.

Our presumption is the move connects directly and deeply to the NCAA recruiting violations, as opposed to general mismanagement of football specifically and athletics generally.

ASU has often been described as a “sleeping giant” within college athletics. We view the situation differently. It’s more like the Sun Devils are in a prolonged, medically induced coma resulting from so many self-inflicted wounds over the decades. (ASU has committed nine major NCAA violations over the course of decades, more than any Power Five school.)

Yes, the business model established by Crow — with the massive online education program and the sprawling real estate ventures — has allowed the university to subsidize athletics with more than $20 million annually.

Yes, the huge enrollment (about 60,000 students in Tempe) creates a base of student support for athletics.

And the improvement in high school football across metropolitan Phoenix has led to a bevy of blue-chip prospects within a short drive of campus.

Put another way: ASU has a well-resourced athletic department in a huge media market with an enormous alumni base and in-state talent.

For those reasons and more, including Crow’s willingness to pay his athletic director well — Anderson earned about $1 million annually — the Sun Devils will have a deep, impressive candidate pool.

Make no mistake: It’s a coveted job.

But it’s also more difficult than the view from afar would suggest, with lasting traction in Phoenix’s pro-sports market being ASU’s white whale.

The Sun Devils would be well served to hire a candidate who knows the school and the area, who’s thoroughly engaging and endlessly energetic — the administrative version of football coach Kenny Dillingham, an ASU graduate hired by Anderson and Crow last year.

But at the very least, Crow must hire an athletic director who understands the playing field, who can lean on industry contacts and experience as college sports undergoes unprecedented change.

The Sun Devils are entering the Big 12 next summer, but that’s merely a chapter in the story. Anderson’s replacement must position ASU for the next round of upheaval later this decade or early in the 2030s.

Crow is the wild card in the process.

He hired Anderson, a former sports agent and NFL executive.

He signed off on the Edwards experiment and the ‘New Leadership Model.’

He supported former Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott’s failed policies and steered the conference straight toward the cliff.

He justifiably takes immense pride in his reputation as an innovator, in transforming ASU into a post-modern national university.

But in this case, Crow must resist his instincts.

Arizona State needs the anti-Anderson.

It needs someone who will connect with the community, not alienate the constituents.

It needs someone who will prepare for the future, not hire business partners from the past.

It needs someone who will embrace pragmatism, solve problems, shun hubris and position the Sun Devils to thrive in a dynamic landscape.

After all, Anderson’s attempt to reinvent the wheel is the reason ASU football crashed and burned.

The Sun Devils have a chance to thrive if they can just, for once, stay out of their own way.

Here’s an outside-the-box idea for Crow: Hire an AD from inside college sports.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.

The final fortnight of conference play carries plenty of unknowns across the Pac-12, but this much is clear: Washington would qualify for the College Football Playoff as an undefeated conference champion.

At 13-0, with wins over at least five ranked teams, the Huskies would not be shoved aside in favor of a one-loss champion from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC.

But what if they stumble and the last team standing in the Pac-12’s final season — whether it’s UW or Oregon — has one loss?

In that situation, the conference might need help ending its six-year playoff drought.

What scenario would clear a path for the one-loss Pac-12 winner?

What outcomes in other leagues would most benefit Washington or Oregon?

In our view, the conference needs:

— Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship. A victory by the Crimson Tide would leave Georgia as a one-loss threat to block the Pac-12 champ.

— Texas to lose in the regular season or the Big 12 title game. If the Longhorns finish as a one-loss champ (with a victory at Alabama on their resume), they might receive priority over the Pac-12 winner.

— Ohio State to beat Michigan and claim the Big Ten title. If the Wolverines win the conference, then Ohio State becomes a playoff threat as a one-loss division runner-up with a victory at Notre Dame and its immense brand value.

Other scenarios could become problematic for a one-loss Pac-12 champion, but those are atop the list as playoff selection day, Dec. 3, fast approaches.

To the projections …

College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl

Team: Oregon (9-1)
Home game remaining: Oregon State
Road game remaining: Arizona State
Comment: The Ducks received a resume boost last week when the team they beat in Week 2, Texas Tech, upset No. 16 Kansas. If the Red Raiders (4-6) were to topple Texas in their finale, the benefits — to either Oregon or Washington — would be substantial.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team: Washington (10-0)
Home game: Washington State
Road game: Oregon State
Comment: It’s essentially a one-game regular season for the Huskies — we see no possibility of a loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup. But beating the Beavers in Corvallis will be as difficult as beating Oregon in Seattle. In other words: coin flip.

Alamo Bowl

Team: USC (7-4)
Home game: UCLA
Road game: none
Comment: Given the options, the Alamo would happily invite the eight-win Trojans, who have never participated in the game. Also, the prospect of Lincoln Riley facing his former team, Oklahoma, or another old Big 12 nemesis, is a matchup the bowl could not refuse. But the Trojans need to handle UCLA.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Arizona (7-3)
Home game: Utah
Road game: Arizona State
Comment: The Hotline is currently projecting the Wildcats to win out and finish 9-3, with head-to-head victories over other Las Vegas Bowl candidates (Utah and Oregon State). Also, as we noted last week, the Arizona basketball team plays in Las Vegas the day of the bowl game. This pairing of school and bowl makes loads of sense.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon State (8-2)
Home game: Washington
Road game: Oregon
Comment: The list of teams that would satisfy Holiday executives is seemingly three deep: USC, Arizona and Oregon State. (We don’t view Oregon or Washington as possibilities.) Of that trio, the Beavers would be the only option available under our scenario.

Sun Bowl

Team: Utah (7-3)
Home game: Colorado
Road game: Arizona
Comment: The ceiling remains high for the Utes — but only if they win out. Otherwise, the late-season stumbles and fears among bowl officials that disappointed fans won’t travel (after back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl) could prompt a plunge down the bowl lineup.

LA Bowl

Team: UCLA (6-4)
Home game: Cal
Road game: USC
Comment: At this point, we should mention the Pac-12 selection policy. The Alamo, Las Vegas and Holidays Bowls can invite Team Y over Team X as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record. Starting with the Sun Bowl, teams are slotted based on conference record.

At-large bowl

Team: Cal (4-6)
Home games: none
Road games: Stanford, UCLA
Comment: Given the emergence of an effective offense in Berkeley and the recent struggles experienced by the Cardinal and Bruins, the Hotline currently projects Cal to win out and salvage a bowl berth. As an at-large team, the Bears would fill a vacancy in a game not affiliated with the Pac-12.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado (4-6)
Home games: none
Road games: Washington State, Utah
Comment: From 3-1 and the talk of college football at the end of September to 4-8 or 5-7 at the end of November would constitute one of the all-time fades. It would also reflect reality. The Buffaloes have a sub-.500 roster.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford (3-7)
Home games: Cal, Notre Dame
Road games: none
Comment: Who figured the last football game ever broadcast on the Pac-12 Networks (Nov. 25) would be Stanford’s finale against Notre Dame? Apparently, ESPN and Fox were not interested in the 3-7 hosts against the 7-3 visitors.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State (4-6)
Home game: Colorado
Road game: Washington
Comment: If the Cougars finish one game short of a bowl berth, the missed opportunity will be easy to spot: Their 10-7 loss to Stanford earlier this month was, more than any other game, the one that got away.

Ineligible

Team: Arizona State (3-7)
Home games: Oregon, Arizona
Road games: none
Comment: The announced resignation of unpopular athletic director Ray Anderson, the architect of the Herm Edwards fiasco, was essential to what will be a long climb to relevance under Kenny Dillingham. It helps provide the program with a fresh start.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Boise State and San Diego State make two. Will there be others?

The Mountain West coaching carousel began spinning Sunday morning when Boise State announced the dismissal of third-year coach Andy Avalos … with the Broncos smack in the middle of the conference championship race.

San Diego State followed with news of its own on Monday morning, announcing that 65-year-old coach Brady Hoke would retire at the end of the season — a classy way for Hoke to end his career without the Aztecs having to execute a public termination.

So two of the 12 schools have vacancies, and we believe there will be more.

Nevada and New Mexico could make changes, as well.

And there’s always a chance of one or more coaches leaving voluntarily, either to retire or take another job.

So buckle up for the next six weeks. With the regular season ending, the transfer portal opening and the early signing window looming, it could be a wild stretch in the Mountain West.

To the power ratings …

(All times Pacific)

1. UNLV (8-2/5-1)

Last week: 5
Result: beat Wyoming 34-14
Next up: at Air Force (12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: An odd situation in that three of the top four teams in the power ratings lost; nor have we ever elevated a team from fifth to first in a single week. But the ratings are subjective, and nobody is playing better than the Rebels at the moment.

2. Boise State (5-5/4-2)

Last week: 3
Result: beat New Mexico 42-14
Next up: at Utah State (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The timing of the Avalos dismissal is both unusual (after a big win) and risky: The disruption could cost Boise State a chance to win the conference.

3. Fresno State (8-2/4-2)

Last week: 1
Result: lost at San Jose State 42-18
Next up: vs. New Mexico (7:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The path into the MW championship game was wide and clear. Now, it’s muddled. The Bulldogs should win out but must navigate the one-loss teams ahead of them. (They need Air Force to beat UNLV.)

4. Air Force (8-2/5-1)

Last week: 2
Result: lost at Hawaii 27-13
Next up: vs. UNLV (12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Can’t believe there have been many crazier weeks in MW history, not just with the results but the size of the upsets.

5. San Jose State (5-5/4-2)

Last week: 6
Result: beat Fresno State 42-18
Next up: vs. San Diego State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The Spartans better beat SDSU to secure a bowl berth, because UNLV looms in the finale (on the road). And that is anything but a guaranteed win.

6. Wyoming (6-4/3-3)

Last week: 4
Result: lost at UNLV 34-14
Next up: vs. Hawaii (11 a.m. on Spectrum)
Comment: After Hawaii, the Cowboys face Nevada — so an eight-win season is well within their grasp. And which Wyoming fans wouldn’t have taken 8-4 before the season began? None of them.

7. Colorado State (4-6/2-4)

Last week: 7
Result: beat San Diego State 22-19
Next up: vs. Nevada (12 p.m. on MW Network)
Comment: Another team with the postseason in reach as the Rams merely need to beat Nevada and Hawaii to clinch a berth. The MW could finish with more bowl-eligible teams than the Pac-12.

8. Utah State (5-5/3-3)

Last week: 8
Result: beat Nevada 41-24
Next up: vs. Boise State (4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Another team on the brink: Beat New Mexico in the finale, and the Aggies will be eligible for the sixth consecutive year (excluding 2020).

9. Hawaii (4-7/2-4)

Last week: 9
Result: beat Air Force 27-13
Next up: at Wyoming (11 a.m. on Spectrum)
Comment: Not much surprises us these days. Hawaii’s 14-point win over Air Force was the exception … until we saw the Falcons had four turnovers.

10. Nevada (2-8/2-4)

Last week: 10
Result: lost at Utah State 41-24
Next up: at Colorado State (12 p.m. on MW Network)
Comment: Because of the transfer portal in early December and the early signing period in the middle of the month, schools cannot afford to wait on coaching changes. If the Wolf Pack makes a move, it will likely happen before Thanksgiving.

11. San Diego State (3-7/1-5)

Last week: 11
Result: lost at Colorado State 22-19
Next up: at San Jose State (7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: With the expanded College Football Playoff and guaranteed access for the best Group of Five team, the SDSU job should have considerable appeal.

12. New Mexico (3-7/1-5)

Last week: 12
Result: lost at Boise State 42-14
Next up: at Fresno State (7:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Our advice: Sell stock in defensive coordinators hired away from Pac-12 schools to coach their alma maters in the MW.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

(A five-way deadlock also is possible, but we can’t contemplate that outcome without heads exploding.)

Let’s keep things as simple as possible until Saturday night and offer three points:

— Washington and Oregon are the only teams that control their own destiny.

The Huskies would clinch a berth in Las Vegas this week with a victory at Oregon State or with a loss to the Beavers and losses by both Arizona and Oregon.

— Oregon clinches a spot in the title game with a victory at Arizona State and an Arizona loss to Utah.

— And keep in mind that two matchups not on the schedule, USC-Oregon State and Arizona-Oregon, could complicate matters because of the Pac-12 tiebreaker process, which uses head-to-head outcomes only if all the tied teams have played each other.

To the power ratings …

1. Oregon (9-1/6-1)

Last week: 1
Result: beat USC 36-27
Next up: at Arizona State (1 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Four years ago, the one-loss, sixth-ranked Ducks and their superb quarterback (Justin Herbert) headed to ASU for a late-November duel. The Sun Devils, who had lost four in a row, produced a 31-28 upset. Will history repeat? The Ducks were 14-point favorites then. They are 22.5-point favorites now.

2. Washington (10-0/7-0)

Last week: 2
Result: beat Utah 35-28
Next up: at Oregon State (4:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: The number that jumps out this week is 4.6: yards-per-carry allowed by Washington’s defense in conference games. If the Huskies don’t fare any better against OSU’s master-class running game, they will depart Corvallis with their first loss.

3. Oregon State (8-2/5-2)

Last week: 3
Result: beat Stanford 62-17
Next up: vs. Washington (4:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: So an undefeated, fifth-ranked opponent is coming to town with a Heisman Trophy favorite and 17-game winning streak — and the Beavers opened as one-point favorites. Does anything better illustrate the work done by Jonathan Smith? We think not.

4. Arizona (7-3/5-2)

Last week: 4
Result: won at Colorado 34-31
Next up: vs. Utah (11:30 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Plenty of folks were disappointed that this critical game ended up on the Pac-12 Networks while Fox picked Oregon-Arizona State. In all candor, that’s an easy call for Fox. Arizona doesn’t move the ratings needle an iota; Utah is coming off a loss (on Fox); and Oregon, in addition to being squarely in the playoff race, stands as the closest thing to a ratings machine as exists on the West Coast.

5. Utah (7-3/4-3)

Last week: 5
Result: lost at Washington 35-28
Next up: at Arizona (11:30 a.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Admittedly, the Hotline did not see the Utes’ consecutive trips to Seattle and Tucson as being the toughest road back-to-back any team will face this season. But here we are. And here they are.

6. USC (7-4/5-3)

Last week: 7
Result: lost at Oregon 36-27
Next up: vs. UCLA (12:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: Two seasons with a generational talent at quarterback and zero conference titles? The closest parallel to USC’s plight is Stanford in 2010-11 with Andrew Luck, but the details differ. The Cardinal ran into an Oregon juggernaut and simply lacked the defensive talent to compete with the Ducks. USC’s issues are entirely about poor coaching on the defensive side.

7. UCLA (6-4/3-4)

Last week: 6
Result: lost to Arizona State 17-7
Next up: at USC (12:30 p.m. on ABC)
Comment: So many comparisons between the implosion against ASU over the weekend and the inexplicable loss to Arizona last season: Both games were at home; both were the week before the USC game; both were to opponents with 1-5 conference records; both came with the Bruins as heavy favorites; and both left frustrated UCLA fans pining for a coaching change.

8. Cal (4-6/2-5)

Last week: 9
Result: beat WSU 42-39
Next up: at Stanford (3:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: With a four-game losing streak in the rearview mirror, the Bears have a real shot to qualify for the postseason. Handle the Cardinal, which just lost by 45 points, and the Bruins, who are floundering, and they’re headed somewhere for the holidays for the first time since 2019.

9. Arizona State (3-7/2-5)

Last week: 11
Result: won at UCLA 17-7
Next up: vs. Oregon (1 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Not on our bingo card for the 2023 season: ASU in the No. 9 hole of the Hotline’s power ratings. Flip the outcome of a few plays (against Washington, Cal or Colorado) and the Sun Devils would be on the brink of qualifying for a spot in the postseason that they would be bound to reject.

10. Colorado (4-6/1-6)

Last week: 8
Result: lost to Arizona 34-31
Next up: at Washington State (Friday, 7:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Take note that TCU is 2-5 in a mediocre Big 12, Nebraska is 3-4 in the offensively challenged Big Ten West and Colorado State is 2-4 in the Mountain West. Granted, those are merely conference records. But we can also offer the following statement of fact: The Buffaloes haven’t beaten a team with a winning overall record.

11. Stanford (3-7/2-5)

Last week: 10
Result: lost at Oregon State 62-17
Next up: vs. Cal (3:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks)
Comment: Final tally for the final season: Oregon schools 104, Stanford 23. Ouch.

12. Washington State (4-6/1-6)

Last week: 12
Result: lost at Cal 42-39
Next up: vs. Colorado (Friday, 7:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The Hotline will have full clarity on the bottom rung of our power ratings come Friday night. Somebody has to lose, even if it takes until Saturday morning.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Theme of the week: State of the race

Washington and Oregon were unable to clinch spots in Las Vegas because of victories by Arizona and Oregon State. However, the Huskies (7-0 in conference) will lock down a berth with one more win (vs. OSU or Washington State) while the Ducks (6-1) need two wins (vs. ASU and OSU) or one victory and a little help. And we should note the potential for things to get messy if the Ducks and Wildcats finish tied for the No. 2 spot given that they didn’t play each other.

Game of the week: Cal 42, Washington State 39

There were several entertaining matchups, but we selected the Berkeley affair because of the fourth quarter playmaking: The teams combined for four touchdowns in the final 15 minutes with the Cougars rallying from a 42-24 deficit but missing on two chances to pull even in the final minutes.

Coach of the week: Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham

Fresh off a blowout loss at Utah and with an injury list longer than November shadows, Dillingham somehow coaxed and cajoled his 16.5-point underdogs to a 17-7 victory at UCLA. The Sun Devils have two conference wins and three victories overall — totals that are vastly better than they look considering the circumstances in Tempe.

Coach of the season: Arizona’s Jedd Fisch(?)

It appears to be a two-man race for COY in the conference between Fisch and Washington’s Kalen DeBoer. If the Huskies run the table, DeBoer should have significant support. But Fisch has done first-rate work in Tucson with a team that was picked eighth in the preseason media poll. As of today, the Wildcats (7-3/5-2) are in the hunt for a spot in the championship game.

Team of the decade: Washington

The Huskies are the first Pac-12 team since Oregon in 2012 to start the season with a 10-0 record. Those Ducks lost their 11th game to Stanford and were unable to lock down a perfect record in league play. With two more wins, UW would be the only team of the Pac-12 era (2011-23) to finish undefeated in conference play.

Implosion of the week: UCLA

The loss to ASU was nothing short of an abomination for the Bruins, who once again have failed to impact the Pac-12 race. Sure, they were forced by injuries to use their No. 3 quarterback, Collin Schlee, but ASU’s health situation is much worse. If the Bruins lose to USC and Cal, it might be time to start wondering about Chip Kelly’s job security.

Adios of the season: Utah

The two-time defending champions made a gallant last stand in Seattle, but the 35-28 loss to Washington effectively marks the end of their pursuit of a three-peat. The Utes have been eliminated from the No. 1 seed — they are three games behind UW with two to play — and need massive help to snag the No. 2 seed.

Offensive player of the week: Oregon QB Bo Nix

Anyone can look good against USC’s defense; Nix looked great. He completed 23-of-31 passes for four touchdowns and 412 yards — and several on-target throws were dropped. If he’s not the Heisman favorite, Nix is step-for-step with Washington’s Michael Penix as they remain on collision course in the Pac-12 title game.

Defensive player of the week: Cal LB Cade Uluave

We spotted a slew of stellar defensive performances across the conference, but Uluave stood out with three takeaways. That’s right. The true freshman had two fumble recoveries and an interception in the win over Washington State. And one of the recoveries became a 51-yard scoop-and-score touchdown. Oh, and Uluave also had nine tackles.

Drive of the week: Arizona

The Wildcats took five minutes to cover 67 yards and kick the game-winning field goal to beat Colorado 34-31 for their seven win of the season. The drive included two long runs by tailback Jonah Coleman as Arizona’s balance was the difference. The drive was so efficient that the Wildcats killed the final minute of play with kneel-downs by quarterback Noah Fifita in range of a short field goal.

Bowl math of the week I: Cal

The Bears (4-6) kept their postseason hopes very much alive with the victory over Washington State. (It was their first win since September, by the way.) The math is simple enough: Beat Stanford and UCLA — a double-dip that doesn’t appear nearly as daunting as it did a few weeks ago — and they’re in.

Bowl math of the week II: Washington State

The Cougars have dropped six in a row and must beat Colorado and Washington (gulp!) in order to preserve their streak of bowl bids in seasons that aren’t disrupted by a pandemic. The last time WSU didn’t reach the postseason, other than 2020, was way back in 2014.

Bowl math of the week III: Colorado

The story of September in college football is in free fall after blowing a second half lead and losing to Arizona on a last-second field goal. The Buffaloes (4-6) have dropped six of their last seven and, like Cal and WSU, must win out to claim a postseason berth. Their remaining games are on the road: In Pullman on Friday night, then in Salt Lake City. Good luck with that.

Stat of the week: Cal

The Bears scored three touchdowns on fumbles against Washington State: Two were scoop-and-scores by the defense (51 and 52 yards), and the third was a recovery in the end zone by an offensive lineman. Yes, an offensive lineman.

Stat of the season I: Arizona

The Wildcats (7-3) have fewer losses than USC (7-4). Not bad for a program that hasn’t been bowling since 2017 and was 1-11 two seasons ago.

Stat of the season II: Washington

In their three biggest games of the year, against Oregon, USC and Utah, the Huskies have allowed a grand total of seven points in the fourth quarter. The lone score: a touchdown run by Oregon’s Jordan James.

Stat of the decade: Oregon State

The Beavers are 8-2 for the first time since 2012, when they finished the regular season 9-3 and lost to Texas in the Alamo Bowl. OSU has won nine consecutive home games, its longest streak since 2007-08.

Game of the week I: Colorado at Washington State

A Friday night affair in the Palouse is a bowl-elimination game for the loser, although, if we’re being candid, the winner doesn’t have much chance to become bowl-eligible, either. Nonetheless, both teams will be desperate given their twin collapses.

Game of next week II: Washington at Oregon State

Oregon State (8-2) got what it wanted: A high-stakes visit from the undefeated Huskies. ESPN’s ‘CollegeGameDay’ won’t make the trek to Corvallis and is headed to James Madison instead. No matter. The atmosphere in Reser Stadium for the 4:30 p.m. (ABC) kickoff will be off the hook.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

The lawsuit filed by Washington State and Oregon State in early September is scheduled for a critical hearing on Tuesday in Whitman County (Wash.) Superior Court, where Judge Gary Libey could determine the makeup of the governing board and, thus, control of the finances.

Or maybe he won’t rule on Tuesday.

Or maybe the process will end before the hearing even begins.

The outlook is uncertain, but the stakes are clear — and substantial.

The Cougars and Beavers believe the 10 outbound schools relinquished their board positions when they agreed to join other conferences starting next summer.

The 10 outbound schools believe they have not violated the Pac-12’s bylaws and should retain their board seats.

The Cougars and Beavers believe that if allowed to remain on the board, the departing schools could vote as a bloc to dissolve the conference and split the assets equally among the 12 universities.

The 10 outbound schools believe that if given control of the board, WSU and OSU would keep all the conference’s assets for themselves, including more than $400 million in revenue generated this school year, when all 12 are competing under the Pac-12 banner.

Time is essential for WSU and OSU. It has been 100 days since the Pac-12 collapsed on Aug. 4, and they need clarity on the governance of the conference — and the resources available — in order to plot their strategy for the 2024-25 competition season and beyond.

How might the situation unfold?

Let’s dive in …

Scenario I: Settlement via mediation

Context: The plaintiffs and defendants agreed to enter mediation in early October. There have been no leaks thus far, so it’s difficult to ascertain the level of progress, or lack thereof.

However, we can view the situation through the lens of … wait for it … common sense.

To the Cougars and Beavers, the dispute is over both money and governance. They want control of the Pac-12’s long-term assets, including NCAA Tournament units worth about $60 million and, potentially, $80 million in Rose Bowl revenue. Also, they want sole possession of the governing board in order to determine their own futures and prevent the 10 from dissolving the conference. With the board seats, of course, would come control over the 2023-24 revenue.

(One option under consideration: Competing as a two-school league for two years, then adding teams from the Mountain West.)

To the departing schools, the dispute is over money. Based on court filings, they are less concerned with the conference’s future assets and more focused on their shares of the 2023-24 revenue. The figure cited is $420 million, or about $35 million per school.

As we see it, there is room for compromise:

The 10 outbound schools relinquish their board votes, allowing WSU and OSU to control the future of the conference; meanwhile, WSU and OSU agree to distribute most, if not all of the 2023-24 revenue.

How much? We have no idea. Maybe the 10 outbound schools agree to take $25 million per campus, or $30 million.

Why wouldn’t they proceed with the court fight and attempt to grab every last dime of their full $35 million shares?

Because they don’t want to spend the money on billable hours or risk losing in court and ending up with nothing — no control, no current-year revenue and no long-haul assets.

Likelihood of a settlement: 50 percent

Scenario II: The case concludes Tuesday

Context: The crux of the dispute is simple, with WSU and OSU opposing the 10 outgoing schools. But the details are tricky. The named defendant isn’t a school — it’s the conference itself, along with commissioner George Kliavkoff. (Yes, he’s still the commissioner.)

Meanwhile, one school has joined the fray through a motion to intervene: Washington, because it’s located in the state where the lawsuit was filed.

Acting on behalf of all 10 departing schools, the Huskies oppose the request for a preliminary injunction that would give board control to WSU and OSU.

Libey’s courtroom is located 15 miles from WSU’s campus. He already ruled in favor of the Cougars and Beavers in September, granting their request for a temporary restraining order that brought board business to a halt.

If there is no settlement and the hearing proceeds on schedule Tuesday (2 p.m.), Libey is expected to rule on the preliminary injunction request.

A decision could come at the end of the hearing, or he could opt to review the case for a period of time.

Either way, Libey, like many judges, could signal which way he’s leaning during the proceedings. And WSU has the home-court advantage.

That said, a decision won’t mean resolution.

Likelihood of conclusion Tuesday: 0.1 percent (assuming no settlement)

Scenario III: The loser appeals

Context: It’s difficult to sketch a scenario in which Libey’s ruling carries enough nuance to satisfy both sides.

As a result, multiple sources familiar with details of the case expect the loser to appeal Libey’s ruling immediately to the Washington Supreme Court in Olympia.

In fact, this might have been Washington’s plan all along.

Why? Because an appeal would turn a road game (15 miles from Pullman) into a neutral court affair.

It might even give the defendants an advantage. Olympia is an hour from Seattle. There’s a strong chance that presiding judges will have UW ties.

How long could an appeal take? Possibly several weeks; potentially several months.

Likelihood of an appeal: 99.9 percent (assuming no settlement)

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.