SAN JOSE — It all comes down to this.
Saturday evening at PayPal Park could mark the turnaround of a struggling franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game in 11 years. It could be the sign of a club that’s changed directions behind a new coach with a new vision.
For the San Jose Earthquakes, a win in their regular-season finale against Austin FC would clinch a berth in the MLS Playoffs for the first time since 2020. A win combined with either a loss or tie from either FC Dallas or Portland, and the Earthquakes will host a playoff game at PayPal Park for the first time in the stadium’s eight-year history.
“I think we’re all hungry,” said striker Jeremy Ebobisse, who has 10 goals in 33 matches. “I know it’s been a while since the Quakes have had a chance to play for a playoff position.”
With MLS’ new expanded playoff format, the top seven teams in each conference earn a berth to the first round of the playoffs, which feature a best-of-three format in which the higher seed hosts two games and the lower seed hosts one.
The eighth and ninth seeds qualify for a wild card spot and will play a single-game elimination match hosted by the higher seed.
The Earthquakes (10-13-10) enter Saturday sitting in the ninth spot with 43 points, the same total as FC Dallas (10-13-10) and Portland (11-13-12). But they’re behind Portland on the first tiebreaker (wins) and Dallas on the second tiebreaker (goal differential), leaving them in a tricky position.
The two teams behind the Quakes, Sporting KC (11-8-14) and Minnesota (10-11-12), are each sitting at 41 points and will play against one another on Saturday. If they draw, the Quakes will automatically qualify as the nine seed, no matter their result. But if either Sporting KC or Minnesota wins and the Quakes do not, the Quakes are out of the playoffs yet again.
They’ve qualified just twice in the last decade (2017 and ‘20) and were booted in the first round each time. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2012.
“The difference for me compared to previous years is I think the couple times we made the playoffs before, we limped in,” said Quakes general manager Chris Leitch. “This year, this team wants to run to this opportunity. We don’t feel like we’re lucky to be there. We feel like we deserve to be there.”
Led by first-year coach Luchi Gonzalez, an assistant coach for the U.S. Men’s National Team during the 2022 World Cup, the Earthquakes have transformed their play style to become more of a secure, defensive-minded club that’s difficult to break down but doesn’t score many goals.
They’ve allowed just 42 goals, fourth-least in the Western Conference, but have scored just 38, worse than all but two teams. MLS MVP finalist Cristian Espinoza leads the team with 12 goals.
Against Austin, there will be more incentive to go for a win than to play safely, given a win guarantees them a playoff spot.
The only way a draw helps the Quakes is if FC Dallas or Portland lose, in which case the Quakes could move ahead of them in the standings and end up in a position to host the wild-card game instead of playing on the road. A draw for San Jose paired with losses from both FC Dallas and Portland would mean the Quakes wouldn’t have to play in the wild-card game and would advance to a best-of-three series against the No. 2 seed next weekend.
Austin has already been eliminated from playoff contention, “but we’re not taking them for granted,” Ebobisse said. “When we were eliminated last year we took points off people who were still pushing for playoff position. So we know what it’s like to be them, coming in and wanting to play the spoiler.”
While advancing to the postseason would be a great success for a team that finished in last place a year ago, it would also result in a first-round matchup with St. Louis City FC, an expansion team that has dominated the conference this year and is sitting comfortably at the top of the table.
“I’d love to play them in the next round, that’d be awesome,” Gonzalez said. “But that’s not the thought. We have to earn that. We’re not there yet.”
The Quakes would be in a much better position had they held onto their 1-0 lead against FC Dallas last weekend. Ebobisse scored in the third minute to put his team ahead, but the Quakes surrendered a tie-breaking goal in the 57th minute and ended up with a 1-1 draw.
“This league is so tight, anybody can win any game at any time,” Gonzalez said. “I like that we’re doing it at home. At home, we’ve been a force. With our fans behind us, with the energy of the team collectively and in the club.
“We’re excited about this opportunity. We show our best when we’re enjoying ourselves, enjoying the opportunity, and embracing it, no matter the stakes or possible consequences. Stay present, enjoy it, and stay together.”
